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Prediction for CME (2019-05-12T19:54:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-05-12T19:54Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14748/-1
CME Note: There is no clear signature arrival for this specific CME. The arrival attributed to the 2019-05-13T16:09Z CME is also very weak and difficult to be certain about it.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-15T14:52Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2019-05-13 01:51 
 - Time at C2: 2019-05-12 19:54 
 - Radial speed: 607.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 35 deg
 - Eruption location: S13E10
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 588.10 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2019-05-15 14:52 (i.e. predicted transit time: 66.97 hours)

Predicted Kp: 4.4

Lead Time: 57.37 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2019-05-13T05:30Z

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